America's self-proclaimed "toughest sheriff" is running for his seventh term but it could be Joe Arpaio's toughest race yet.
A new poll just conducted by Sherpa Public Affairs has Arpaio's challenger, Paul Penzone, leading the race by 10 points.
A new poll conducted by political consultant Gibson McKay with Sherpa Public Affairs shows Penzone taking a ten point lead over Arpaio.
"I knew there was a lot of discussion among the chattering class that Arpaio was having trouble. I was surprised that the margin by which indicated as him losing."
348 Maricopa County voters were asked who they would choose. Some of the results were surprising for McKay, like Arpaio losing among independents.
"I think his base, which has always been traditionally been an older base, that 50 to 65 crowd, really is departing from him. The reason for that, I don't know. Also, men who he has always done well with. Kind of that red beat, law and order kind of attitude, men are leaving him too."
Although many people believe these numbers are a direct result to Tuesday's news that Arpaio will face criminal contempt charges, McKay says that is not possible since the poll was done October 2-5.
"I've been doing polls for 15 to 20 years in Arizona and around the country and they're snapshots of an election. Can he make up space? Certainly. Can Mr. Penzone lose support? Certainly, but if it keeps going the way it's going right now, we're going to have a new sheriff in Maricopa County."
People were also polled on other races including the presidential race.