Tim Skubick: Poll shows Mark Schauer's likely voters - FOX 10 News | fox10phoenix.com

Tim Skubick: Poll shows Mark Schauer's likely voters

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Democratic challenger Mark Schauer can beat incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder if the voting population is narrowly drawn based on the latest EPIC-MRA numbers.  Or put another way, he wins but only if his supporters are the only ones who vote which is pretty unlikely.

When you dive into the survey you see that the person who supports Mr. Scahuer has the following profile: Pro-choice, lives in a labor household, is between 50-64 and is a non-believer when it comes to religion.

In addition, that voter is a liberal, no shocker there, earns under $25,000 a year and resides in Macomb County.

However Mr. Snyder holds a lead in all the other segments of the voting universe.

Yet if you are in the Schauer camp you could draw some solice from knowing that pro-choice voters favor him by a wide 55%-32% margin.  The lead is a little bigger, 57%-33% in union households and the challenger has a ten point lead with those between 50-and 64 years of age and a twenty-four point margin with those who don't go to church.

In the all important moderate voter contest, it is a tie with each receiving 41% of the middle of the road vote.

President Barack Obama rode to victory over Mitt Romney by holding together the African-American vote and the "other" minority voting blocks.

Mr. Schauer is doing well there with a commanding 61-17 point lead with Blacks and a 55%-30% lead with other minorities.  The 17 points for a GOP incumbent is pretty good and Mr. Schauer will want to up that 61% figure before all the votes are counted.

In vote rich Wayne-Oakland-Macomb Counties the two are very close.  Mr. Schauer gets 45% to Mr. Snyder's 42% but with a 4% margin of error, the contest is a dead heat there.  Across the rest of the state the governor is doing well with a 22 point lead in Mid-Michigan, 25 points in West Michigan and 20 and 27 points respectively in the Bay region and up North.

The pundits will suggest Democrat Schauer has a base of supporters from which to work, but he'll need to build upon that or else the other guy wins.  But has the Schauer folks like to say, "it's still early."

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