Pedestrians and vehicles move through Times Square in the Manhattan borough of New York City on August 18, 2025. (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU / AFP) (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)
According to a report, the U.S. population may decline in 2025 for the first time in history as immigration and birth rates continue to fall.
Immigrant population in the US declining, data shows
By the numbers:
According to the American Enterprise Institute, in 2025, net migration is expected to range from a loss of about 525,000 people to a small gain of 115,000, showing fewer people coming in and more leaving.
Migration may drop even more in 2026 before starting to recover in 2027 and 2028.
According to Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center, in January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. But in the following months, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived, according to the Pew Research Center.
RELATED: Immigrant population in the US declining, data shows
Numbers show that by June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people.
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The Pew Research Center said a number of policy changes starting in mid-2024 have affected the US immigrant population. Researchers also noted that lower survey response rates among immigrants have contributed to the recent decline.
A new Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data finds that, as of June 2025:
- 51.9 million immigrants lived in the U.S.
- 15.4% of all U.S. residents were immigrants, down from a recent historic high of 15.8%.
- 19% of the U.S. labor force were immigrants, down from 20% and by over 750,000 workers since January.
Why you should care:
According to the AEI, the population shifts are likely to slow GDP growth by 0.3–0.4 percentage points in 2025 and will also reduce growth in the labor force and jobs.
As a result, monthly job growth could be very weak—or even negative—over the next few years.
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Trump cracks down on immigration
Big picture view:
President Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to deport millions of immigrants working in the U.S. illegally. He has said he is focusing deportation efforts on "dangerous criminals," but most people detained by ICE have no criminal convictions. At the same time, the number of illegal border crossings has plunged under his policies.
The first day in office, Trump signed an order declaring an invasion at the southern border and said he was "suspending the physical entry" of migrants and their ability to seek asylum until he decides it is over. Immigration advocates have sued, and the issue is before the courts.
Number of immigrants in the US
According to the data, as of June 2025, 51.9 million immigrants lived in the U.S. However, this is down from January, when there was a recorded 53.3 million immigrants in the U.S.
The U.S. is home to more immigrants than any other country. The second-largest immigrant population is in Germany, which has a reported 17 million immigrants, according to the United Nations.
In the US, the majority of immigrants, 22%, are from Mexico. The second-largest immigrant group is from India with 6% of the population, followed by China, also at 6%, the Philippines with 4%, and Cuba with 3%.
To view more data from the Pew Research Center on the immigrant population in the US, click here.
The Source: The Associated Press and KTTV contributed to this report. Projections on migration and economic impacts were provided by the American Enterprise Institute, which estimated net migration for 2025 could range from a loss of 525,000 people to a gain of 115,000. Data on the immigrant population was drawn from U.S. Census Bureau figures, which were analyzed by the Pew Research Center. This story was reported from Los Angeles.