Here's what Americans are saying about the economy, stock market outlook in 2026: Poll

More Americans expect the stock market and the broader economy to improve over the next six months than to deteriorate, though pessimism outweighs optimism on unemployment and inflation. Expectations for interest rates are more evenly split.

The findings come from a Gallup survey asking U.S. adults whether five economic indicators will rise, fall or stay the same over the next six months. 

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Methodology:

Gallup first asked Americans in October 2001 about their expectations for five key economic indicators, updating the measures monthly through late 2005. Since then, the questions have been asked 11 additional times, though not during the late 2007 to early 2009 Great Recession. The most recent results are from a Gallup poll conducted Jan. 2–17.

The last time the questions were asked, in April 2025, public sentiment had deteriorated sharply from three months earlier, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on most U.S. trading partners that heightened economic uncertainty. The more upbeat readings in January 2025 were largely driven by Republicans’ optimism about the economy under the incoming Trump administration.

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By the numbers:

While some respondents anticipate little change, optimism exceeds pessimism for both the stock market (50% positive vs. 25% negative) and economic growth (49% vs. 36%). Views on interest rates are mixed, with 41% expecting rates to fall and 36% expecting them to rise. By contrast, majorities anticipate increases in inflation (62%) and unemployment (50%).

In April, Americans’ optimism about the stock market dropped sharply amid global market volatility triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The share expecting the market to rise at least somewhat plunged 32 percentage points, from a record 61% to 29%, tying the lowest level on record. 

Since then, sentiment has rebounded, with 50% now expecting the market to climb in the coming months, while the share anticipating a decline has fallen 33 points to 25%. Another 17% of U.S. adults expect little change. Still, optimism remains below the January 2025 peak.

U.S. adults’ expectations for economic growth have followed a similar pattern, with optimism peaking a year ago at 53% before dropping to 38% in April and largely rebounding since. Today, nearly half of Americans (49%) expect economic growth, outweighing those who foresee a decline (36%) or no change (13%).

Dig deeper:

According to Gallup, Americans’ expectations for all five economic indicators remain sharply divided along partisan lines, with Republicans far more likely than Democrats and independents to anticipate positive outcomes. 

Majorities of Republicans express optimism across every measure, ranging from 59% on inflation to 82% on economic growth.

Democrats are evenly split on whether the stock market will rise or fall, while majorities or pluralities—ranging from 49% on interest rates to 86% on inflation—expect negative outcomes for the other indicators. 

Independents’ views generally align more closely with Democrats’ than with Republicans’.

Big picture view:

Americans hold a mixed view of the economic outlook over the next six months. Pluralities expect gains in the stock market and overall economic growth, and slightly more anticipate interest rates will fall than rise. These views represent a rebound from the pessimism that emerged last spring amid market volatility, though optimism remains below earlier peaks.

At the same time, many Americans expect continued economic pressure, with a clear majority predicting higher inflation and half anticipating rising unemployment. The outlook varies sharply by party, as Republicans foresee positive outcomes across all indicators, while Democrats and independents are more likely to expect conditions to worsen.