US homicides on pace for a historic low in 2026, report finds
Police place bullet casing markers outside of a Hilton Hotel in Midtown Manhattan where United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot on December 04, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
New data collected from major cities across the nation show that homicides have dropped sharply in the first half of 2026, part of a continuing three-year decline in violent crime.
What we know:
The mid-year report, which examined crime trends in 30 U.S. cities, found homicides fell 18% this year compared with the same period in 2025. The drop follows a 10% decline last year and marks one of the steepest year-by-year decreases in the past decade. The declining trend would be the lowest homicide rate in over a century if it continues through to the end of the year.
The findings align with federal data that showed national violent crime fell in 2023 and 2024 and appears to be continuing that decline into 2026. The Associated Press, citing the CCJ report, said the drop in homicides is widespread, with most participating cities reporting double-digit decreases.
Despite the encouraging numbers, researchers cautioned that crime remains uneven across neighborhoods and that some cities still continue to struggle with persistent violence.
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Stopping the violence
What they're saying:
Researchers say the trend reflects improvements in policing strategies, community-based violence intervention programs and the fading of social and economic disruptions that fueled violence earlier in the decade.
Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, says the biggest factors contributing to the improvements are nationwide and not specific to just one local public safety measure.
"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity," Gelb said.
By the numbers:
With homicide trends being uneven, about one-third of the 30 cities included in the sample recorded increases in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to this year. Norfolk, Virginia saw a 64% jump and San Francisco reported a 55% increase. Only four cities: Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis experienced more homicides in 2026 than they did in the same period in 2019.
Despite those cities seeing sharp increases in homicides, violent crime in general has become less deadly. Gelb says a significant number of violent crimes have been less deadly, dropping 23%. Researchers say that decline suggests fewer violent incidents that end in a fatality.
Speaking to non-violent offenses, numbers there also showed improvements. Residential burglaries dropped 13%, year by year and are 50% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
The Source: This story was written with information provided by The Associated Press and the Council on Criminal Justice. This story was reported from Orlando.