2026 Election: Political analyst 'surprised' with Karrin Taylor Robson's campaign suspension

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Karrin Taylor Robson (From Archive)

PHOENIX - 2026's race to be Arizona's next governor had a shake-up on Feb. 12, with Karrin Taylor Robson announcing that she is suspending her campaign.

The backstory:

On Feb. 12, we reported that Robson, whose campaign was endorsed by President Donald Trump, announced on X that she is suspending her campaign for governor after "deep reflection, prayer, and many conversations with my family."

"We cannot afford a divisive Republican primary that drains resources and turns into months of intraparty attacks," read a portion of her statement. "It only weakens our conservative cause and gives the left exactly what they want, a fractured Republican Party heading into November. With so much on the line in 2026, I am not willing to contribute to that outcome."

This was Robson's second campaign for governor. She ran in 2022, but lost to Kari Lake in the Republican primary.

Expert Perspective:

Mike Noble with Noble Predictive Insights called Robson’s announcement a bombshell.

"From a data perspective, I was just frankly surprised," Noble said.

Noble believes the news could clear up the primaries for Arizona’s GOP voters. He said Robson’s campaign suspension was not something he saw coming, due in part to her fundraising and positive polling. This is according to Noble Predictive Insights' August 2025 Public Opinion Pulse poll on the race.

Noble said Robson’s announcement likely strengthens one prominent Arizona congressman’s chances over another’s.

"This is great news for Andy Biggs and bad news for Congressman Schweikert," Noble said. "Biggs is now the only Trump-endorsed candidate in this race."

Noble said that endorsement is significant for a Republican base that backs many of the president’s policy decisions. However, he added that midterms typically result in losses for the party in power.

"It's gonna be a big matchup, but right now I’d say the advantage goes to the incumbent Katie Hobbs," Noble said. "One, she has more than $5 million in the bank; right now Biggs has less than a million. The other big factor is that Republicans are in the seat of power and we’re in the midterms, and right now, the independents are not very happy with Republicans."

Dig deeper:

Noble said his main curiosity for the general election lies with the voters outside of the two main parties.

"Where are the independents aligned? Because really it comes down to 15-18% of the elector," Noble said. "A lot of the die is already cast between Republicans and Democrats. Which way those independents go, right now, at least in the polling, at least a year out, it’s that they’re really shifting toward Democrats."

What's next:

Noble said it will also be notable which of the remaining GOP candidates Robson chooses to endorse, if she issues an endorsement at all.