The Groundhog Day verdict is in: Was Punxsutawney Phil right?
Punxsutawney Phil: Groundhog sees shadow, predicts 6 more weeks of winter
Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow on this Groundhog Day, revealing his prediction of six more weeks of winter.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. - It's been six weeks since Groundhog Day 2025 and after a careful and detailed analysis, FOX Weather has determined that Punxsutawney Phil was once again incorrect in predicting six more weeks of winter weather.
Based on data from NOAA, the Lower 48 was about 0.4°F warmer than average in the six weeks following Groundhog Day this year. That's despite a series of coast-to-coast storms that brought blizzard conditions to swathes of the central U.S.
According to local folklore, if Phil emerges from his den on Feb. 2 and sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of wintry weather, whereas no shadow would portend an early spring.
The groundhog failed to build on his correct prediction of an early spring in 2024, and has only been correct three times within the last 11 years, according to NOAA, using average national temperature in the 6 weeks since as the measuring stick.
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Above average temperatures despite outbreak arctic temperatures and several blizzards
National temperatures still reached nearly half a degree above average in the six weeks following Groundhog Day, even with a polar air plunge from Canada invading much of the U.S. during the third and fourth weeks of February.
Swaths of America also saw blizzard conditions on the backside of several coast-to-coast storms over the past two weeks.
So, it's understandable if supporters of Punxsutawney Phil say it hasn't exactly felt like spring for many.
However, most of the country has said goodbye to winter, including 235 million people who will see temperatures 10–20 degrees above normal this week.
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Punxsutawney Phil was right just 27% of the time over last 11 years
The Groundhog Day tradition that began with German settlers in Pennsylvania, based on a German custom involving a hedgehog seeing its shadow. Since there were no hedgehogs in America, German immigrants used native hedgehogs instead, according to Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
The club said the current tradition in Punxsutawney started in 1887, which was the first officially documented trek to Gobbler's Knob, where the ceremony is held.
Currently, a group referred to as "the Inner Circle" announces to the world whether Phil has seen his shadow.
According to data from NOAA, Phil has predicted more winter 108 times, and an early spring just 20 times, with 10 years without recorded data.
Phil got it right last year in 2024, calling for an early spring. But over the last 11 years, NOAA says the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 27.3%.
Punxsutawney Phil's prediction record for last 10 years (FOX Weather)
In fairness to Phil, climatology isn't for the faint of heart.
"Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country – especially one with varied regional climates like the United States – isn’t easy," wrote NOAA in an article on Groundhog Day weather history.
Batting .273 is solid for a baseball player, but as far as weather predictions go, not so much.
DID PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW OR IS AN EARLY SPRING ON THE WAY?