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Polling expert Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance to win Electoral College in updated forecast

By Daniel Miller
FOX TV Stations
2024 Election
Published September 10, 2024 9:30 AM MST
Published September 10, 2024 9:30 AM MST
article

Side-by-side photo of Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. (FOX News Edge) 

The Brief

    • Nate Silver’s updated election prediction model gives Donald Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College.
    • Silver’s latest election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College.
    • The polling expert’s data is based on a recent New York Times-Sienna College poll.

Nate Silver released his latest election prediction model which gives Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College.

Silver’s model also reveals that Kamala Harris has a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, and overall, leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver's national polling average, FOX News reported. 

RELATED: Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling

The American statistician and founder of election analysis site FiveThirtyEight shared his analysis on Sunday following a recent New York Times-Sienna College poll that showed that Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by one percentage point heading into Tuesday night’s crucial presidential debate. 

According to FOX News, Silver points out that if Harris performed well in the debate, the New York Times poll may not matter.

RELATED: 2 top experts predict outcome of presidential election – and arrive at different results

Several national polls and swing state polls have Harris with a slight lead over Trump, but Silver notes that the results of the NYT-Sienna poll corroborate his election model’s view that momentum might be shifting in the presidential race.

Silver’s latest prediction comes a week after he wrote on Sept. 5 that Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College soared to 58.2% while Harris’ odds dwindled to 41.6% 

How does Nate Silver’s election model work?

Silver’s 2024 election forecast model is similar to his FiveThirtyEight election version with the methodology mostly the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced in his election model in 2020, according to his Silver Bulletin, a site offering the latest polling data. 

His 2024 election model examines polling averages but adjusts for polls conducted among registered or likely voters. When predicting a winner, the model also uses national polls to make determinations about state polls.

The Source 

  • Information for this story was provided by FOX News, Nate Silver’s election model posted in his Silver Bulletin, and data from the recent New York Times-Sienna College poll.  This story was reported from Washington, D.C. 


 

2024 ElectionDonald J. TrumpKamala HarrisPoliticsU.S.NewsDonald J. Trump