Poll: Sen. McSally still behind Mark Kelly, but gap is narrowing

Mark Kelly (left) and Martha McSally (right)

A new poll shows Senator Martha McSally still behind her Democratic challenger, Mark Kelly, in Arizona's Senate election in November, but Kelly's lead is shrinking.

According to a poll conducted by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights that was released on August 11, Kelly is ahead of McSally by five percentage points. In July, the lead was nine percentage points, and in May, Kelly had enjoyed a lead that was as large as 13 points.

The poll notes that while Kelly's support level has dropped, McSally's level of support remains unchanged from July to August, with 43% of voters in both polls preferring her over Kelly.

"One of the main drivers narrowing the race is the negative advertising coming from McSally and Republican-aligned groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, mostly centering on Kelly’s business ties to a Chinese company," read a portion of a statement released by officials with OH Predictive Insights.

The poll also notes that Kelly's lead over McSally with independent voters has dropped, but McSally's support amongst independent voters has not changed.

“If McSally continues on her current flight path, she has a shot at winning this election,” says OH Predictive Insights Data Analyst Jacob Joss, in the statement.

Whoever wins the seat in November will have to campaign in 2022 to keep the seat for six years. The seat was once held by John McCain, who died in 2018. McSally was appointed to the seat, after she was defeated by Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 for a Senate seat once held by Jeff Flake.

Poll Methodology

According to officials with OH Predictive Insights, the poll was conducted from August 3 to August 4, from a sample of likely voters, via a blend of live phone calls and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) phone surveys.

604 people were surveyed, according to officials, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.