Housing analyst explains pause on Arizona water supply certificates

Over the next few years, we could see less development in Valley cities like Buckeye after Governor Katie Hobbs put a pause on water supply certificates to protect groundwater supplies.

"My first response is this is not something we're going to be dealing with in the near future," said Tina Tamboer, a senior housing analyst at the Cromford Report.

Tamboer says her response is based on the number of certificates already approved for unbuilt homes.

"At this stage, it might pause them, but they still have plenty of permits already approved that they can go forward with," she said.

In a news conference on Thursday, Hobbs said the pause on water supply certificates does not impact the 80,000 unbuilt homes that have already been approved.

"With 80,000 permits already approved per the governor's speech, that's about three to four years of supply of new homes because we sell about 25,000 a year," Tamboer said.

Tamboer is referencing new homes in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. She's optimistic changes can happen over time.

"A lot can happen over the next four to five years, even over the next 10 to 20 years before we ever get to that point of crisis," she said.


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As far as home value, Tamboer says it's too early to tell what this pause on certificates will do.

"I would say that our leading indicators right now tell us that our prices are going to continue to rise for right now," she said. "If we are not allowed to expand, then that means we are going to go more dense. So we've already seen multi-family developments increase in the Valley, which means we're already going towards density and that means that some of the properties that have yards, have pools, have what we're used to – they will definitely be retaining their value."

Hobbs did not specify how long the pause will last.