Different pandemic models paint different pictures for Arizona's COVID-19 pandemic

A number of pandemic models are giving Arizonans dramatically different looks on how the COVID-19 pandemic will unfold in Arizona in the coming months.

On Wednesday, officials with the Arizona Department of Health Services made a post on the agency's website, talking about the models and the numbers.

COVIDActNow predicts many more deaths if restrictions are lifted

One model, posted by COVIDActNow.org, suggests if Arizona is to lift restrictions imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, just over 68,000 people will be hospitalized by late May.

According to AZDHS officials, the model used by COVIDActNow.org, also known as the U.S. Interventions Model, is a data platform built with inputs from experts with Google, Stanford University, and other public health and analytic experts.

The model on COVIDActNow.org shows if restrictions are lifted in Arizona, 65,000 people are expected to die in three months.

The state has an expected 13,611 hospital beds, and under the model, the state's hospital system is expected to be overwhelmed by May 10.

The same model, however, also shows if current interventions remain in place, cases in Arizona are expected to remain stable with 2,000 deaths in three months, and hospitals not expected to be overloaded in that same timeframe.

Other models show peak resource need in May, June

Officials also say under a model they developed with experts from Arizona State University (ASU) and University of Arizona (UArizona), the state is estimated to have a peak need for 600 hospital beds and 300 ICU beds around May 22. This projection is based on data officials received two weeks ago.

AZDHS officials also say based on another model they received from the CDC and FEMA, the state is expected to have peak demand for medical resources by June 11, assuming the stay-at-home order issued by Gov Ducey is ended on April 30.

"As you can see, the model projections vary widely and are highly sensitive to our mitigation strategies," a portion of the post read.

Since 5:00 p.m. on March 31, Arizona has been under a stay-at-home order. The order, officially titled as a "Stay home, Stay healthy, Stay connected" policy, asks Arizonans to limited their time away from their home.

The order has listed a number of activities that are exempt from the order. In addition, a number of business categories are considered to be essential, such as gas stations, grocery stores. Meanwhile, barbers, salons, spas, and massage parlors have been ordered to close on April 4.

In tweets Gov. Ducey made to his Twitter page, he said he wants to get the economy moving and people back to work when it is safe and healthy for people to do so.

"Slowing the spread of #COVID19 remains our number one focus," Gov. Ducey tweeted.

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Additional resources

LIVE: Interactive Coronavirus case data and map

FULL COVERAGE: fox10phoenix.com/coronavirus

Coronavirus (COVID-19) - How it spreads, symptoms, prevention, treatment, FAQ


https://espanol.cdc.gov/enes/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html (In Spanish/En Español)

Arizona COVID-19 Response - Public resources, FAQ, webinars


https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/es/covid-19/index.php#novel-coronavirus-home (In Spanish/En Español)

In order to protect yourself from a possible infection, the CDC recommends: 

Avoid close contact with people who are sick.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.

Stay home when you are sick.

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.

Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.

Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.

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