Fox News Poll: Biden ahead in Arizona, Kelly trouncing McSally in Senate race

Republicans are rightly concerned about Arizona.

A new Fox News Poll finds the state shading blue -- especially in the race for the U.S. Senate, where Democrat Mark Kelly bests incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally by a 50-37 percent margin among Arizona registered voters.

The story here is party loyalty.  Some 88 percent of Democrats back Kelly, while just 73 percent of Republicans support McSally.  Fully 13 percent of those backing President Trump in the presidential race cross over and go for Kelly.

Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally after the 2018 retirement of Sen. John McCain’s successor, Jon Kyl.

In a head-to-head presidential ballot test, Democrat Joe Biden edges President Donald Trump by 46-42 percent.  Another 11 percent are still up for grabs.  Biden’s 4-point advantage is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Among the 49 percent of voters who are extremely interested in the election, Biden leads Trump by a 52-42 percent margin.

Biden’s advantage comes from his support among Hispanics (+38 points), voters under 45 (+17), and women (+5).

Trump is preferred among white men without a college degree (+17 points), whites (+6) and voters ages 65 and over (+5).

Roughly equal numbers of Biden (66 percent) and Trump supporters (64 percent) are extremely motivated to vote in November.

Trump won Arizona by three and a half percentage points in 2016.  GOP nominee Mitt Romney took the state by nine points in 2012.

In November 2018, only 32 percent of Arizona voters rated the economy negatively according to the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey. Now, 74 percent feel the economy is in bad shape.

Six in 10 Arizona voters (60 percent) are very or somewhat concerned about catching coronavirus.

More voters trust Biden over Trump to handle the pandemic by 7 points, while more trust Trump on the economy by 7 points.  In addition, more trust Biden on race relations by 16 points and immigration by 1.

The president’s personal favorable ratings are upside down: a 54 percent majority views him negatively, while 44 percent have a positive view.

For Biden, 49 percent have a favorable opinion vs. 47 percent unfavorable.

Trump’s overall job performance is also underwater among Arizona voters by 6 percentage points:  46 percent approve vs. 52 percent disapprove.

Among those who approve of Trump’s job performance, only 90 percent back him for re-election, while 4 percent go for Biden and the rest are unsure or won’t vote.

Trump’s job ratings pale in comparison to those for Republican Governor Doug Ducey.

A majority of 61 percent approves of the job Ducey is doing, nearly double the number who disapprove (33 percent).

Four voters in 10 (39 percent) think Ducey is reopening the state at about the right pace, while a roughly equal number believe he is moving too quickly (40 percent).  Fifteen percent say he is not opening things quickly enough.  Arizona is still in phase one of a three-phase reopening process, although the governor says it is nearing phase two.

A majority of Republicans (52 percent) and nearly half of independents (48 percent) think the reopening is happening at the right pace, while a majority of Democrats (64 percent) says it is happening too quickly.


Some 75 percent of Arizona voters have a favorable opinion of people who wear masks and 65 percent believe it is important for the president to wear a mask as an example for Americans.

Among Democrats, 80 percent are concerned about getting the virus, 91 percent view mask wearers positively, and 92 percent say it is important the president wears one.  Each of those numbers is much lower among Republicans: 42 percent worry about catching coronavirus, 61 percent have a favorable opinion of people who wear a mask, and 37 percent feel Trump wearing a mask is important.

On the economy, 89 percent of Democrats feel the economy is in negative shape compared to 58 percent of Republicans.

Conducted May 30-June 2, 2020 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,002 Arizona voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file, who spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.  Respondents could complete the interview in English or Spanish.

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