ASU, state health officials speak out amid news that team of COVID-19 modelers in Arizona was disbanded

Officials with the Arizona Department of Health Services and Arizona State University have issued statements Wednesday, following reports that a team of experts who have created a COVID-19 pandemic model that is specific to the State of Arizona has been disbanded.

On Wednesday evening, FOX 10 received a statement from an Arizona State University spokesperson, who said ASU has conducted modeling data research on the impact of the pandemic on Arizona, and that in April, ASU and University of Arizona researchers were contacted by AZDHS to form a group that provided estimates on COVID-19 cases, hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, and economic impact assessments.

ASU officials note the working group's model was one of several public health models AZDHS used for guidance on its public health decisions.

"With the Governor’s announcement of updated Arizona COVID-19 guidelines on May 4, the working group was notified by ADHS to discontinue its services until the fall," a portion of the statement read. "Moving forward, ASU will continue to perform its COVID-19 research, and will make these updates publicly available during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.”

Group's disbanding prompts criticism

Earlier on Wedensday, Representative Ruben Gallego spoke out on the decision to disband the team. Rep. Gallego, who is a Democratic Party Congressman, represents Arizona's 7th Congressional District, which covers Downtown Phoenix, South Phoenix, and portions of the West Valley.

"I fear that Ducey's effort to obstruct and halt your work is a politically driven decision aimed at suppressing valuable information that may cast doubts on his preferred reopening policies," Rep. Gallego wrote.

On Monday, Gov. Ducey announced that barbers and salons in the state can reopen on May 8, while restaurants can resume dine-in operations on May 11. Arizona has been under a stay-at-home order since March 31. The order was extended to May 15 on April 29.

In the same statement, Rep. Gallego also urged the team to ignore Gov. Ducey's directive.

"I urge you to reject Governor Ducey's order to stop your modeling work, and I urge you to demand continued access to Ducey's 'special data sets,'" Rep. Gallego wrote. "If the Governor's Office continues to restrict its 'special data sets' from both you and the general public, please continue your research and modeling based on publicly available information."

On his blog, Will Humble with the Arizona Public Health Association also spoke out on the reported decision by state officials.

"[Monday] night’s action to disband the Arizona COVID-19 Modeling Working Group begs the question of whether the Modeling Working Group was discontinued because they had been producing results that were inconsistent with messaging and decisions being made by the executive branch," Humble wrote.

State official responds

On Wednesday, FOX 10 received a statement from Chris Minnick, Communications Director for the Arizona Department of Health Services.

In the statement, Minnick says the department appreciates the work of the team, which was established to provide an additional epidemic model for consideration.

The model, according to Minnick, was completed on April 20.

"With months of data now available, we have shifted our primary focus from predictive models to using all of our real-time, Arizona specific data to assess the health of our healthcare system and evaluate the trend of our cases to make decisions that are best for Arizona," Minnick wrote.

Minnick went on to write that while many of the current models show that Arizona's medical capacity is sufficient to meet the projected need for hospital beds and ventilators, the state is still preparing for a worst-case scenario to ensure all Arizonans have access to quality care and treatment.

Models show different trajectory for Arizona during COVID-19 pandemic

On April 22, FOX 10 reported on how different pandemic models are painting different pictures for the COVID-19 pandemic in Arizona.

At the time, officials say under a model they developed with experts from Arizona State University (ASU) and University of Arizona (UArizona), the state is estimated to have a peak need for 600 hospital beds and 300 ICU beds around May 22. That projection was based on data officials received two weeks prior to April 22.

Officials also listed other pandemic models at the time, including a model by COVIDActNow.org, also known as the U.S. Interventions Model. That model shows if restrictions are lifted in Arizona on April 22, 65,000 people are expected to die in three months.

On Wednesday, the same website shows if all restrictions are lifted, hospitals would overload on May 29, and there would be a total of 39,000 deaths from COVID-19 by August 2, 2020.

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You can also get the latest coronavirus news from around the country at coronavirusnow.com

COVID-19 symptoms

Symptoms for coronavirus COVID-19 include fever, coughing, and shortness of breath. These, of course, are similar to the common cold and flu. 

Expect a common cold to start out with a sore or scratchy throat, cough, runny and/or stuffy nose. Flu symptoms are more intense and usually come on suddenly, and can include a high fever. 

Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear more slowly. They usually include fever, a dry cough and noticeable shortness of breath, according to the World Health Organization. A minority of cases develop pneumonia, and the disease is especially worrisome for the elderly and those with other medical problems such as high blood pressure, obesity, diabetes or heart conditions.

RELATED: Is it the flu, a cold or COVID-19? Different viruses present similar symptoms

Right now there's one big difference between flu and coronavirus: A vaccine exists to help prevent the flu and it's not too late to get it. It won't protect you from catching the coronavirus, but may put you in a better position to fight it.

To protect yourself, wash your hands well and often, keep them away from your face, and avoid crowds and standing close to people.

And if you do find yourself showing any of these flu or coronavirus symptoms - don't go straight to your doctor's office. That just risks making more people sick, officials urge. Call ahead, and ask if you need to be seen and where.

In order to protect yourself from a possible infection, the CDC recommends: 

Avoid close contact with people who are sick.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.

Stay home when you are sick.

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.

Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.

Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.

Additional resources

Coronavirus (COVID-19) - How it spreads, symptoms, prevention, treatment, FAQ

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus

https://espanol.cdc.gov/enes/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html (In Spanish/En Español)

Arizona COVID-19 Response - Public resources, FAQ, webinars

https://www.azdhs.gov/coronavirus

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/es/covid-19/index.php#novel-coronavirus-home (In Spanish/En Español)

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